Nigeria Energy Transition Plan



Including electricity generation, both on and off grid, this sector represents about 27% of in-scope emissions.

Sector Breakdown

0 MtCO2

emitted in 2020

Emissions in this sector are largely driven by off-grid diesel/petrol generator use and on-grid gas combustion in power plants.

Due to insufficient generation and grid constraints, majority of households, businesses and industries in the nation generate their own electricity with diesel/petrol generators.

An urgent priority for decarbonization is the transition away from these diesel and petrol generators to cleaner sources of energy.

Emissions Breakdown (%)

0 GW

operational grid capacity for population of over 200 million

0 %

of operational energy capacity comes from off-grid diesel/petrol generators

0 mil

people in Nigeria are without access to grid electricity

In order to achieve development goals such as universal access to electricity and industrialization, in light of ever-increasing population, Nigeria requires rapid expansion of electricity generation capacity and production. In addition, the nation’s decarbonization goals require the electrification of sectors such as Cooking, Industry and Transportation.

Electricity demand is expected to increase significantly in the net-zero pathway.

The ETP analysis indicates that capacity on average needs to grow about 6.7x to match the expected growth in electricity demand.

Growth in Centralized Electricity Demand across Different Segments (Twh)

Growth in Decentralized Electricity Demand across Different Segments (Twh)

Decarbonization Strategy

Consequently, the key strategy in this sector is the complete elimination of diesel/petrol generators and the expansion of generation capacity via renewable sources, primarily Solar.
However, given the need to establish baseload capacity and facilitate the integration of renewables, there will be an initial ramp-up of gas generation prior to 2030.

Net Zero Vision

Centralized Production Capacity Growth (GW)

Centralized Storage Capacity Growth (GW)

Decentralized Production Capacity Growth (GW)

Solar Home Systems (SHS) are preferred for areas with low density (e.g villages with less than 20 individuals), while Minigrids are preferred for larger communities. Solar PV + battery systems are preferred mainly for the industrial sector due to high electricity demand per individual actor.

Action steps:

Deployment of decentralized renewable energy (RE)

Replacing generators to attain universal electrification goals - about 6.3GW required by 2030.

~0.6GW/year which is equivalent to about 1.5 million newly electrified households/yr.

Expansion of transmission and distribution network

To support full utilization of current capacity and expansion of centralized capcity.

Upgrade of central generation capacity to achieve 42GW of operation capacity in 2030

~ + 3 GW/yr, including 1 GW/year natural gas revamp, 0.8 GW/yr new solar PV and 0.3 GW/yr biomass

Post 2030, deployment of centralized RE - solar PV and corresponding storage with Hydrogen starting in 2040

~ 7GW/yr by 2050 and 5GW/yr between 2050 and 2060