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Nigeria's pathway to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060
Nigeria, already a political and economic leader on the continent, seeks to take the lead in just and equitable climate action
In Nigeria, desertification in the north, floods in the centre, pollution and erosion on the coast and the associated socio-economic consequences all allude to the reality and grave impacts of climate change. Consequently, bold action to limit the impacts of climate change must be undertaken urgently.
At the same time, in light of rapidly rising population, accelerated development is needed to ensure improved living conditions for millions of Nigerians.
The next couple of decades present a unique opportunity to merge these two priorities; economic development and climate action, and to achieve in Africa’s largest economy, one of the world’s first true just transitions.
Reducing emissions and powering development
At COP26, H.E. President Muhammadu Buhari announced Nigeria’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060
Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) was unveiled shortly after– highlighting the scale of effort required to achieve the 2060 net zero target whilst also meeting the nation’s energy needs.
Since the announcement, the Climate Change Act 2021 has been passed, the ETP has been fully approved by the Federal Government and an Energy Transition Implementation working group (ETWG) chaired by H.E Vice President Yemi Osinbajo (SAN), comprising of several key ministers and supported by an Energy Transition Office (ETO) has been established.
Power
Transport
Oil and Gas
Cooking
Industry
Nigeria can be carbon neutral by 2060
The Nigeria Energy Transition Plan (ETP) is a home-grown, data-backed, multipronged strategy developed for the achievement of net-zero emissions in terms of the nation’s energy consumption.
The Nigeria ETP sets out a timeline and framework for the attainment of emissions’ reduction across 5 key sectors; Power, Cooking, Oil and Gas, Transport and Industry.
Within the scope of the ETP, about 65% of Nigeria’s emissions are affected.
Key ETP objectives
At the core of the plan are the following imperatives:
Lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty and driving economic growth
Bringing modern energy services to the full population
Managing the expected long-term job loss in the oil sector due to the reduced global fossil-fuel demand
Playing a leadership role for Africa by promoting a fair, inclusive and equitable energy transition in Africa that will include Gas as a “transitionary fuel”
Streamlining existing and new government related energy transition initiatives
Key Insights
Nigeria’s net-zero pathway will result in significant net job creation with up to 340k jobs created by 2030 and up to 840k jobs created by 2060 driven mainly by the Power, Cooking and Transport sectors.
Gas will play a critical role as a transition fuel in Nigeria’s net-zero pathway particularly in the Power and Cooking sectors.
Nigeria’s energy transition creates significant investment opportunities such as the establishment and expansion of industries related to solar energy, hydrogen, and electric vehicles.
Net job creation per sector
The ETP requires significant emission reductions in 5 key sectors
Power
Transport
Oil and Gas
Cooking
Industry
The Nigeria ETP was initially created with a 2050 net-zero target. However, given the significant financial, social and technological requirements, the nation concluded that a more realistic pathway to deep decarbonization would land on 2060.
Power
Transition away from diesel/petrol generators (which account for bulk of current generation capacity)
Initial expansion of gas generation capacity to establish baseload capacity for meeting increased electricity demand and integrating renewables.
Ramp up of renewables-backed electrification to facilitate
decarbonization in sectors such as buildings (cooking),
industry and transportation.
Transport
Emissions decrease by ~97% due to uptake of EVs in passenger car segment
Cooking
Speedy replacement of traditional firewood, kerosene and charcoal by LPG to achieve SDG7 by 2030
Post 2030 transition to electric cookstove and biogas
with the latter mainly in rural homes
Oil and Gas
Emissions decrease primarily driven by globalresponse to climate change.
Reduction in flaring and fugitive emissions also
support decarbonization.
Industry
Emissions decrease by ~97% despite industrial growth due to decarbonization efforts in cement and ammonia production, and 100% shift to zero emission fuels for heating 
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$1.9 Trillion is required to get to Net Zero by 2060, including $410 Billion above projected usual spending. This additional cost translates to about $10 billion annually
Incremental cost from BAU to Net Zero 2060, Bn USD
Incremental investments from 2021-60 to reach Net Zero 2060, Bn USD
This figure covers counter acting dynamics:
Most of the effort will be needed in the power sector: extra CAPEX is needed to finance the power sector generation capacity ($270Bn), and the T&D infrastructure ($135Bn)
Significant savings in terms of fuel costs for power considering the switch to 90% renewables (-$121 Bn) compensates for some of the CAPEX increases
$1.9 Trillion is required to get to Net Zero by 2060, including $410 Billion above projected usual spending. This additional cost translates to about $10 billion annually
Incremental cost from BAU to Net Zero 2060, Bn USD
This figure covers counter acting dynamics:
Most of the effort will be needed in the power sector: extra CAPEX is needed to finance the power sector generation capacity ($270Bn), and the T&D infrastructure ($135Bn)
Significant savings in terms of fuel costs for power considering the switch to 90% renewables (-$121 Bn) compensates for some of the CAPEX increases
Incremental investments from 2021-60 to reach Net Zero 2060, Bn USD
To kickstart the implementation of this bold plan, Nigeria is seeking to raise funds ahead of COP27
The additional cost of the energy transition above usual spending translates to ~$10 billion annually over the coming decades.
To kickstart the implementation of the ETP, Nigeria seeks to raise an initial $10 billion support package ahead of COP27.
However, the nation has even greater room for investment. A $23 billion investment opportunity has been identified based on current in-country programmes and projects that are directly related to the just energy transition.
Partners
Achieving Nigeria's climate ambitions and energy needs requires strong partnerships and coalitions. The Energy Transition Office is supported by the following partners.
